A newly-formed tropical depression in the Atlantic Ocean has the potential to become a significant Category 4 hurricane as the hurricane season reaches its peak in early September. Tropical Depression 13 formed on Tuesday morning in the central tropical Atlantic, approximately 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to intensify into a tropical storm later on Tuesday and will be named Lee.
As the depression continues to move west-northwest this week, it will encounter increasingly favorable conditions for strengthening. These conditions include ample moisture, low wind shear, and abnormally warm water, extending along almost the entire projected path of the potential cyclone. The National Hurricane Center’s storm discussion noted that their intensity forecast is quite bullish for an initial prediction, but still falls below the intensity consensus. However, all signs point to the depression becoming a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period.
The system is predicted to become a hurricane as early as Thursday and could become the fourth hurricane of the season, joining the ranks of Don, Franklin, and Idalia. By the weekend, it is expected to gain significant strength, potentially becoming the third Category 3 or stronger hurricane of the season.
As the hurricane tracks west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic, it is likely to pass close to the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Any shifts in its projected path as it nears the islands could lead to a greater impact in that region and beyond. Therefore, residents of the eastern Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, as well as the Bahamas, should closely monitor the forecast.
While it is too early to determine whether this system will directly impact the US mainland, even if it stays out to sea, there is still a risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast. Just over the Labor Day weekend, one person tragically lost their life due to a rip current in New Jersey.
September 10th marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, typically the busiest period of the year in terms of tropical activity. Though it is not uncommon for a flurry of storm activity to occur around this date, it is important to remain vigilant as the situation can quickly become hazardous.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has already been busy, with above-average activity in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, according to Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University. This further underscores the need for individuals and communities to stay informed and prepared as the season progresses.