According to Richard Hughes, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the impact of leaving the European Union on the UK economy was equivalent to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a probable 4% reduction in output. Hughes compared this shock to other recent economic shocks, such as the energy crisis, which also had significant effects on future output levels. The UK's economic growth has also been hampered by declining productivity, a diminishing workforce, and a lack of investment, leading to lower living standards. The Office for Budget Responsibility is an independent forecaster that monitors public spending. The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 and formally exited in January 2020. Brexit has made it more difficult for some companies to find workers and for domestic manufacturers to sell their products in the EU, while also providing the UK with the opportunity to pursue trade deals independently. The UK has yet to recover to pre-COVID levels of GDP growth, and the tight labor market conditions have resulted in 600,000 fewer workers than before the pandemic.
Richard Hughes stated that the UK has experienced the most significant decline in living standards on record. He added that although real income is expected to recover in the next three to four years, people's actual purchasing power may not reach pre-pandemic levels even after five years. On the same program, Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove acknowledged that economic forecasting is a challenging task due to the pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine. When questioned about whether the Conservative Party, which has been in power for the last 13 years, bears responsibility for the UK's economic underperformance, he admitted that there is always room for improvement.