With the clock ticking down to a June 5 default deadline, the bipartisan agreement on the debt ceiling is now heading into a crucial final stretch to win congressional passage. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have been busy lobbying members of their respective parties to build enough support ahead of a House vote expected on Wednesday. However, they face opposition from their flanks, making this a challenging situation.
Biden expressed optimism about the situation, but the deal must overcome opposition, including from restive conservatives who want deeper spending cuts. The bill sets federal spending through 2025 and will suspend the debt ceiling till Jan. 1, 2025, halting another fight on federal borrowing authority until the middle of that year. In exchange for Republican votes for the suspension, Democrats agreed to cap federal spending for the next two years.
The White House says the deal will decrease spending by about $1 trillion over a decade, but Republicans argue the spending cut is double that. The House Rules Committee, which controls floor debate, will hold the first test for the deal, on Tuesday afternoon. The House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is also trying to pin down votes, but the Sierra Club's opposition may complicate the situation, alongwith some Democrats who could vote against it due to provisions that would expedite approvals for a natural gas pipeline running across West Virginia and time limits that would impose on environmental reviews of energy projects.
The Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky supports the deal, but they need at least seven more votes to overcome expected hurdles and an anticipated filibuster. Senator Mike Lee of Utah has threatened to hold up passage of the bill he doesn’t like and senators in both parties could also insist on voting on amendments to address the spending caps. The defense hawks are unhappy with a 3.3% increase proposed by Biden not keeping up with inflation.
In summary, Wednesday's passage in the house is critical in avoiding a US default. While there are challenges, with support from both parties and careful negotiations, a final agreement can be reached.