Despite Sweden's hopes of entering NATO, Turkey is unlikely to signal their approval when they meet this week. Talks are part of a joint format agreed last summer between Turkey, Sweden, and Finland. However, Ankara still demands Sweden must fully comply with its conditions to sign off on its membership before the next month's summit of NATO leaders. People familiar with the matter have stressed Sweden's full compliance with the agreement is key for the expansion process to move forward.
Turkey insists that Sweden should fully implement its new "anti-terrorism law," which came into effect on June 1. The law should prevent or disperse anti-Turkey protests in the country. However, there are no provisions for this step in the law, and Turkey has not given a response to this demand. On the other hand, Sweden emphasizes it has fulfilled all its obligations by having the new terrorism law in place. Furthermore, it argues; it has a mutual interest with Turkey in coordinating efforts against terrorism and organized crime more closely.
Last week, a prosecutor in Stockholm charged a man who allegedly raised funds for the Kurdish PKK group. In addition, the Swedish government announced an official decision to extradite a man who claimed his support for the PKK group. These developments indicate that Sweden is taking serious steps to combat terrorism, indicating it is working towards complying with NATO's conditions.
Sweden's prospective NATO membership has been in limbo since Finland joined the alliance in April. Both Turkey and Hungary's ratifications are outstanding. Consequently, NATO allies are urging Turkey to approve Sweden's bid in time for the summit. Sweden's accession would secure NATO's control of the Baltic Sea and give them the upper hand in the Arctic region, both of which are strategic gateways for Russia. Bringing Sweden into the fold would simplify defense planning for the alliance.
Despite the benefits of Sweden's inclusion, its accession to NATO may be subject to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan balancing a tough approach. This comes as he aims to get US congressional support for Turkey's purchase of American-made F-16 fighter jets. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed Sweden's membership and the F-16 sale, which remains in limbo.
Hungary is expected to back Sweden's membership as soon as Turkey signals it plans to do so, as it did with Finland's application. However, for Sweden to join NATO, Turkey must signal its approval.