Turkey's presidential election has resulted in a closely contested race with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failing to secure the 50% of votes necessary for a decisive victory, meaning the election will likely go to a second round. The election is expected to determine the fate of Turkey, a key NATO ally and regional power broker, at a time of global uncertainty due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With 97.95% of votes counted, Erdogan had 49.34% of the votes, while his main opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, had 44.99%. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.28% of the votes, raising the possibility he could be a kingmaker in a runoff. Kilicdaroglu welcomed the prospect of a runoff vote and said his party would triumph.
The election results come as Turkey's economy is faltering, and democratic institutions have been eroded during Erdogan's 20-year rule. The opposition has coalesced around a single candidate, Kilicdaroglu, who represents an election coalition of six opposition parties. Erdogan has campaigned on a platform of stability, independent foreign policy, and bolstering Turkey's defense industry. In recent years, Turkey has strengthened its ties with Russia, and Erdogan has maintained close ties with Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine, causing a headache for NATO's expansion plans by stalling the membership of Finland and Sweden.
The outcome of the election will be closely watched internationally, particularly in Moscow and Europe. Turkey, a NATO member with the alliance's second-largest army, has been a key player in the region and has been strengthening its ties with Russia in recent years, causing concern among some Western powers. The runoff vote is scheduled for May 28th, and it will be interesting to see if Erdogan can secure a decisive victory or if Kilicdaroglu can pull off an upset.