The rise of Germany's far-right has seemingly been triggered by the nation's high influx of asylum seekers, high energy and food costs exacerbated by Russia's tensions over Ukraine, and uncontrollably expensive climate protection methods. The Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which has previously been viewed as a fringe group, has now become tied with Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats as the second-most popular political group in the country, with only an opposition conservative alliance ranking higher as per the latest Infratest Dimap poll. The AfD, which has been successful in exploiting the cracks in Scholz's ruling coalition consisting of the Greens, Free Democrats, and the centre-left Social Democrats, denies the impacts of humans on global warming and is pushing for a stop to foreigners entering the country.
According to the Vice President at Berlin's Hertie School, Andrea Roemmele, the ruling coalition has lost support due to its inability to lay out a positive narrative for the future of the country. Implementing its policies, therefore, proves problematic due to infighting and constant disagreements between the Free Democrats and the Greens. Roemmele claims that the AfD leadership's new unified stance and reduced public battles have led to its increasing popularity as it becomes more attractive to disillusioned supporters of established parties. Additionally, the party has capitalized on the controversy surrounding an influx of more than a million Ukrainian refugees and nearly 250,000 asylum seekers from countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria over the past year.
Unfortunately, the resurgence of the far-right has left little room for Scholz's climate protection measures, limiting the future possibilities for the nation's Green Party and compromising its environmental agenda. With regional elections due in Bavaria and Hesse in October, Scholz's coalition is already stepping back from its climate protection measures, softening legislation targeting homeowners' use of gas boilers and a push to reduce carbon emissions in the housing sector.
While all other parties have ruled out any potential alliances with the AfD, the string of regional elections in the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg could highlight victories for the populist party, with polls in the region indicating its lead. The AfD's rise threatens existing government efforts to cut carbon emissions by two-thirds by 2030, and implementing measures like raising the diesel tax, introducing kerosene tax, or cutting commuter subsidies could reduce carbon emissions, however, attempts would likely be met with widespread resistance from votes targeted by the AfD.
As a result, Scholz's ability to act may be severely limited, and the lack of compromise and consensus could ultimately lead to a dip in support for the ruling parties.