Guatemala's President-elect, Bernardo Arevalo, is set to be inaugurated this week, promising to tackle widespread corruption in the country. However, he will face significant obstacles, including a divided Congress and ongoing attempts by the judiciary to prevent him from assuming power.
Having secured a sweeping victory in the August presidential run-off, Arevalo, 65, aims to restore democracy in Guatemala, the most populous country in Central America. Despite his clear mandate, the attorney general, who is seen as an ally of outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei, has escalated efforts to discredit Arevalo's victory and obstruct his transition.
The attorney general has sought to strip Arevalo and his Vice President-elect Karin Herrera of legal immunity, suspend their Semilla party, and annul the election results. These actions, labeled as a "coup" by Arevalo, have sparked large-scale protests across the country, as well as international pressure for a smooth transition of power.
These events highlight the precarious state of the rule of law in Guatemala, pushing the country to the brink of a governance crisis that could undermine Arevalo's ability to govern effectively and fulfill his campaign promises. His pledges include rooting out corruption, combating organized crime, and generating new employment opportunities.
Robert Alejos, a former Guatemalan Congressman and political analyst, expressed concerns about the obstacles Arevalo is likely to face, stating, "Problems are not over for Arevalo... They are not going to let him pass any law in Congress, and he will have plenty of difficulties governing."
Despite the Semilla party's significant victory in the presidential elections, securing only 23 out of 160 seats in the legislature leaves Arevalo vulnerable to continued political attacks. The conservative Vamos party, led by Giammattei, and the UNE party, headed by former first lady Sandra Torres, collectively hold more power in Congress.
Ana Maria Mendez, Central America director of the Washington Office on Latin American Affairs (WOLA), a human rights group, warned that efforts to criminalize Arevalo and other members of Semilla could persist. She also criticized Attorney General Consuelo Porras, stating that her actions pose a serious threat to governance, stability, and peace in the country.
In addition to grappling with political challenges, President-elect Arevalo will confront significant issues such as widespread poverty, rising living costs, and prevalent violence, which drive migration from Guatemala to the United States. Analysts predict that his government will likely be "transitional" since addressing deeply entrenched poverty, economic inequality, and social issues requires sustained efforts beyond a four-year term.
Arevalo has acknowledged the complex problems facing the Guatemalan population, stating in an interview with Reuters, "We don't believe that the people of Guatemala at this moment are waiting for (us) to arrive with a magic wand... What they want to see... is authorities that finally assume the commitment to work for development and to work for the people, that is what we are going to do."
Another challenge for Arevalo's administration will be finding a balance between the demands from the United States to curb migration and the importance of remittances, which play a significant role in Guatemala's economy.
Moreover, Arevalo has expressed intentions to expand relations with China, potentially impacting the country's diplomatic ties with Taiwan. However, he has denied that strengthening ties with China would mean severing relations with Taiwan, a move that might anger the United States.
As Bernardo Arevalo assumes the presidency, he faces an uphill battle in overcoming corruption, navigating a divided Congress, and addressing deep-rooted social and economic challenges. His success will depend on his ability to forge alliances, withstand political pressures, and implement effective policies to bring about meaningful change in Guatemala.