The Turkish presidential election has been one of the most pivotal in a generation, with incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking to maintain his hold on power against a challenge from Kemal Kilicdaroglu. However, as more ballots have been counted, Erdogan's reported lead has narrowed significantly. With 67.1% of ballot boxes opened, state broadcaster TRT reported that Erdogan had secured 51.4% of the vote, with Kilicdaroglu on 42.8%. However, the opposition has claimed that its parallel count shows Kilicdaroglu ahead by less than one percentage point.
Erdogan has been in power longer than any other Turkish leader, and has overseen a period of significant change in the country's fortunes. Turkey has become a regional power with a growing role in conflicts from Ukraine to Syria. However, Erdogan's economic policies have been increasingly erratic, and the country suffered an inflation crisis last year that hit household budgets hard. This has left him vulnerable to voter resentment, particularly among those who have been hit hardest by the economic downturn.
Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), has the backing of a broad coalition of opposition parties, and has put forward a platform that stresses the need for the rule of law, improved relations with the West, and a return to economic orthodoxy. The outcome of the election is of great importance to investors, who will be looking to see whether Turkey becomes a "buy" again. Foreign money flooded into Turkey during Erdogan's early years in power, but many investors have withdrawn in recent years, as the country's currency has been debased by the incumbent's growth-at-all-costs policies.
As the ballots continue to be counted, it remains to be seen whether Erdogan will be able to hold on to power, or whether Kilicdaroglu will emerge as the victor. The results of the election will have significant implications for Turkey's future direction, both domestically and internationally.