Japan’s declining fertility rate has reached an all-time low, as the government intensifies its efforts to prompt the younger generation to marry and start families, even launching a state-sponsored dating app.
In a nation of 123.9 million people, recent data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revealed a distressing trend: only 727,277 births were recorded last year. The fertility rate – the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime – dropped from 1.26 to 1.20.
For a population to sustain itself, a fertility rate of 2.1 is necessary. This rate ensures a balanced and growth-supportive demographic structure, predominantly composed of children and young adults, as seen in nations like India and many African countries.
However, Japan’s fertility rate has languished below this sustainability threshold since the 1973 global oil crisis, which propelled economies into recession. Despite various attempts, the fertility rate never rebounded.
This declining trend has escalated recently, with annual deaths surpassing births, leading to a shrinking population. This demographic shift has severe implications for Japan’s labor force, economy, welfare framework, and social fabric.
In 2023, Japan reported 1.57 million deaths, more than twice the number of births as per the Health Ministry's statistics. Compounding this issue, the number of marriages decreased by 30,000 last year, while divorces saw a rise.
Experts predict this downward trend to persist for several decades, deeming it partially irreversible due to Japan’s current population structure. Even if a miraculous increase in the fertility rate occurred immediately, the population would continue to decline until the age demographic ratios stabilized.
In response, the government has launched a series of aggressive measures to cushion the impact. New governmental bodies have been established specifically to address this demographic crisis. Among various initiatives, the government is expanding childcare facilities, offering housing subsidies to parents, and, in some localities, financially incentivizing couples to have children.
Tokyo's municipal government is adopting a novel approach: a government-developed dating app, currently in its preliminary testing stage and set to be fully operational later this year.
The app’s website invites users to consider it as the “first step” in their pursuit of marriage. Describing its AI-matchmaking system, provided by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, the site functions through a "values diagnostic test," allowing users to specify desirable traits in a partner.
“AI will introduce you to a compatible person based on your values and the values you seek in a partner, determinable through a diagnostic test,” the website explains. “It offers the possibility of unexpected encounters that go beyond just appearances or specified conditions.”
The app has garnered attention from high-profile individuals, including billionaire Elon Musk, who commented on X, formerly known as Twitter: “I’m glad the government of Japan recognizes the importance of this matter. If radical action isn’t taken, Japan (and many other countries) will disappear!”
Although the scenario Musk posits is unlikely, experts predict that the fertility rate will eventually stabilize, and Japan will adapt accordingly. The country’s future may look considerably different in terms of its demographic composition, economic landscape, and domestic policies, but it will not simply vanish.
“Marriage is a deeply personal decision, but the Tokyo Metropolitan Government aims to build momentum for those who are considering marriage,” states the dating app's website. The goal is to encourage people who intend to marry eventually to take that initial step.
Eligibility for app users is specified: they must be single, over 18 years old with the intent of marriage, and be residing or working in Tokyo.
The website also outlines various government measures to support couples, including information on balancing work and family life, childcare and housing support, encouraging men's participation in domestic duties and child-rearing, and career counseling.
“We aim to get every individual who wishes to marry to contemplate the meaning of being in a ‘couple,’” the website proclaims, underscoring the government’s proactive stance on this pressing issue.