China has sent a naval flotilla led by a powerful destroyer on a 12-day circumnavigation of Japan's main islands, in a show of military power as tensions simmer over Taiwan and ahead of the G7 summit. The flotilla, which includes a smaller destroyer, a frigate and a supply ship, began its voyage on April 30th in the Tsushima Strait between South Korea and Japan. It progressed through the Tsugaru Strait at the northern tip of Hokkaido on May 5th and 6th, and was in the Izu island chain south of Tokyo on Thursday, according to a map released by Japan's Defense Ministry.
Although Chinese naval flotillas have previously performed circumnavigations of Japan, the timing and route of this exercise is raising concerns, particularly as it comes ahead of the G7 summit. The Chinese state-run Global Times has linked the flotilla's journey to "Japan's recent provocative remarks" about Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party claims sovereignty over. While Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that "the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is critical not just for our country, but for the whole international community", Japan's foreign minister has also sent a message of protest to Beijing over comments by China's ambassador that Japan would be "dragged into the fire" if it linked Taiwan to its own security.
Analysts suggest that the Chinese show of force is intended to deter Japan from deepening its security cooperation with the United States and other Western partners, but it is likely to achieve the opposite. Japanese leaders are expected to raise concerns about regional security at the G7 summit, and may well reiterate the message that "Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow", with reference to the prospect of China attacking Taiwan. The Chinese naval exercise is likely to further undermine confidence and drive up regional tensions.