Novo Nordisk's decision to release its weight-loss drug, Wegovy, in the UK amid significant supply constraints may have been driven by multiple factors, including the desire to stay ahead of competitor Eli Lilly. There were also concerns raised by the British government and patient advocacy groups regarding the off-label use of Novo's diabetes drug, Ozempic, which contains the same active ingredient as Wegovy.
Despite facing supply limitations, Novo has expressed its commitment to ensuring that Wegovy reaches those who need it the most. A Novo spokesperson emphasized the importance of giving people with obesity access to this medication while ensuring that Novo's semaglutide products are used appropriately.
Wegovy has already contributed to Novo's status as Europe's most valuable listed company, even though the company has struggled to meet demand in its existing markets. Prior to its recent release in the UK, Wegovy was available in the United States, Norway, Denmark, and Germany.
Based on obesity statistics and prescription criteria, several million Britons may be eligible for Wegovy. The UK has the highest obesity rate in Europe, with nearly one in three adults classified as obese, according to a 2019 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report.
While Novo aims to prioritize the distribution of Wegovy to those in need, medical experts have raised concerns about its availability through private prescribers as well as the National Health Service (NHS). This approach could potentially stimulate demand and make it easier for those who can afford it to access the drug.
Novo has already faced challenges meeting the demand for Wegovy in the United States, with limitations on starter doses, and a similar situation is developing in Germany. In the UK, private companies prescribing Wegovy have reported receiving only a fraction of the requested amounts, indicating potential supply constraints.
Novo has announced that a portion of the available supply will be allocated to the NHS. Although the NHS has not disclosed specific volumes received, it estimates that around 50,000 patients in England may be eligible for treatment with Wegovy.
An industry source suggests that Novo's motivation to stay ahead of Eli Lilly's similar drug, Mounjaro, could have influenced their decision to launch Wegovy in the UK. Mounjaro, already approved for type 2 diabetes treatment in the US, is expected to receive approval for weight-loss treatment later this year. Studies have shown that Mounjaro leads to more weight loss compared to Wegovy.
Another factor influencing the timing of Wegovy's launch in the UK could be the criticism from advocacy groups like Diabetes UK and the government regarding the off-label use of Ozempic for weight loss and the resulting shortages for diabetes patients.
UBS analysts predict that as insurers in the US and other countries restrict access to weight loss drugs due to costs, drugs with higher efficacy are likely to gain a larger share of new patients. Studies have demonstrated that Wegovy, when combined with exercise and lifestyle changes, led to a 15% weight loss over 68 weeks, while Mounjaro resulted in more than 22% over 72 weeks.
Given Mounjaro's higher efficacy, UBS suggests that Novo may not dominate the obesity market in the long term. However, Novo is investing in expanding production capacity to meet the growing demand for Wegovy.