A recent poll has revealed a significant shift in the voting preferences of working-age UK voters, painting a challenging picture for the governing Conservative Party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The survey, conducted by JL Partners and shared with Bloomberg, indicates that the age at which Britons are more likely to choose the Tories over the Labour opposition has increased to 70, up from 39 in the 2019 general election.
This trend underscores the uphill battle facing Sunak and the Conservative Party as they approach the upcoming general election, scheduled to take place within the next nine months. The data from the poll is coupled with another survey by Ipsos, which shows Sunak with one of the lowest approval ratings for a UK premier and the Tories with their lowest ever voting intention share in a data series dating back to 1978.
The challenges ahead are particularly daunting for Sunak, who must navigate a political landscape where the Tories consistently trail behind Keir Starmer’s Labour Party by around 20 points in national polling. Despite efforts such as strong rhetoric on immigration and tax cuts in recent months, there appears to be little impact on swaying the electorate in their favor.
With the pressure mounting, the local elections on May 2 are viewed as a crucial moment that could potentially see internal opponents within the Conservative Party challenge Sunak's leadership. The JL Partners survey reveals a stark divide in voter preferences across age groups, with over-70s being the only demographic more likely to vote Tory than Labour. On the other hand, Labour maintains a significant lead among voters under 65, stretching to a 29-point margin.
As the data highlights the narrow support base of the current Conservative coalition, questions arise about the party's strategy moving forward. Julian Gallie, a research associate at JL Partners, notes the dilemma facing the government in appealing to its remaining supporters or risking the loss of older voters to Reform, the right-wing party established by Nigel Farage.
The Ipsos survey further adds to the challenges facing Sunak, with only 16% expressing satisfaction with his performance as prime minister, resulting in a net approval rating of -59. In terms of voting intention, the Conservatives trail significantly behind Labour, scoring only 19% compared to Labour's 44%, with Reform UK also garnering support at 13%.
Overall, the combination of these surveys underscores the significant hurdles that Sunak and the Conservative Party must overcome as they navigate a challenging political landscape leading up to the upcoming general election.