While the US Northeast is currently enjoying unseasonably warm temperatures reminiscent of spring, meteorologists are warning that winter is far from over. In fact, there is the potential for significant snowfall in the region next week as a storm looms on the horizon. This storm is part of a larger pattern, with the polar vortex - the band of frigid air encircling the north pole - expected to weaken and send a blast of cold air into the US. When combined with the El Niño weather pattern currently in full force, this collision of cold and stormy conditions could lead to snowstorms in the coming weeks.
While the upcoming system may result in a wintry mix in major cities, there is concern that subsequent storms this season could bring more substantial snowfall. When El Niño combines with the Canadian cold, it often creates the ideal conditions for a blockbuster blizzard, such as the infamous "Snowmageddon" of 2010. Such blizzards not only cause major disruptions but can also pose a significant risk to life and safety. Despite the recent lack of significant snowfall in cities like New York and Boston, meteorologists suggest that this February or early March may bring one or more significant snowstorms.
New York City, for example, has not experienced a snowfall of at least 2 inches over 24 hours in Central Park for the past two years. Last month, the city broke its 701-day snow drought with just over an inch of snowfall. Similarly, Boston and other New England cities have also fallen short of their long-term snowfall averages.
However, the current weather conditions are relatively mild for the next few days. El Niño, which causes warming across the equatorial Pacific, typically drives storms across the southern US and up the East Coast. Nonetheless, the real cold from the Arctic and Canada has yet to arrive, resulting in a predominantly wet pattern in the East.
Short-term complacency in fuel markets is observed regarding any potential increase in demand for heating due to a severe freeze. Natural gas futures for next month's delivery have dipped below $2 per million British thermal units, the lowest price since 2020. Furthermore, March delivery contracts are trading below April contracts, suggesting an expectation of sufficient supply by the end of winter. However, signs indicate that wintry conditions may return following the current mild weather. High pressure building over western Canada may propel cold air southward into the US. Additionally, seasonal forecasting experts suggest the return of colder weather and the possibility of another stretched polar vortex by mid-month.
Long-range weather models hint at a shift toward colder temperatures around President's Day weekend, with the climate pattern known as the North Atlantic oscillation shifting into its negative, or cold, phase. This could lead to frigid weather being contained over North America and potentially setting the stage for a significant winter storm in the middle of February. It remains crucial for meteorologists to closely monitor these developments as they unfold.