Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, is finding himself in a precarious position as his governing Conservative Party lost two seats in parliament during recent by-elections. These special elections, which occur outside of regular election cycles, were won by the main opposition party, Labour, in dramatic swings. If replicated on a national level, this would result in a significant Labour majority in a general election.
The timing of these losses adds to the pain for Sunak, as they came just a day after the UK officially entered into a recession amidst an ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Moreover, other flagship policies championed by Sunak are also failing. His pledge to reduce irregular migration by halting small boat crossings from France is being undermined by accusations that a key government deportation policy breaches international law.
The Conservative Party has traditionally held an advantage over Labour on economics and immigration issues. However, Sunak's failure to deliver on both fronts has raised concerns within his party, especially considering that a general election will need to be called soon.
Although the Conservatives were already expecting to lose these by-elections, their hopes were briefly bolstered when Labour became embroiled in an antisemitism scandal earlier in the week. However, despite the scandal gaining attention, it made no significant difference to the voters at the ballot box.
Some members of the Conservative Party believe that the leadership is increasingly out of touch and damaging its own electoral prospects. They argue that Sunak, the richest person to hold the position of Prime Minister, is an inappropriate leader in a time when many people in the UK are facing financial struggles. Others argue that Sunak panders too much to the center-ground of his party and should focus more on conservative issues such as tax cuts and environmental policy changes.
Another cause for concern within the Conservative Party is the rise of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage. Farage's presence and influence have long been a thorn in the side of the Conservatives. As the leader of UKIP and the Brexit Party, he consistently pushed the Conservatives toward more right-wing positions. Although Reform UK is not a serious contender for government, it could potentially siphon off enough conservative votes to pave an easier path to power for Labour.
There is growing vocalization from the right-wing faction within Sunak's party, with some calling for his resignation. Recent polls have even indicated that Sunak is less popular than his predecessor, Liz Truss, who resigned after her controversial economic policies caused turmoil in the markets. However, it remains unclear who would replace Sunak, as bringing back Boris Johnson, who is no longer a member of Parliament, would be difficult.
With limited time before facing the public, it is increasingly challenging for Sunak and his party to avoid the inevitable—being ousted from office by voters. Currently, his immediate challenge is keeping his party together. However, if he cannot achieve even that, the path to electoral victory becomes narrower and shorter.