Muharrem Ince, a presidential candidate in Turkey, has announced his withdrawal from the race, potentially boosting the chances of the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in his bid to beat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sunday's election. Ince's low polling numbers had led some opposition figures to fear that he would split the anti-Erdogan vote, which had largely coalesced around Kilicdaroglu.
At a press conference in Ankara, Ince said, "I am pulling out of this race. I am doing this for my country. I don't want them to blame me when they lose," referring to the main opposition. Ince's centrist party, Homeland, will remain in the parliamentary race, and he urged voters to give them at least one vote. However, Ince did not endorse any of the remaining candidates, and his name will remain on the ballot.
Ince cited a "slander campaign" as the reason for his withdrawal, as he has faced weeks of lurid allegations on social media in Turkey. The Ankara public prosecutor's office has opened an investigation into potential blackmail. Ince, who ran for president in 2018 but lost against Erdogan, broke away from Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party (CHP) and joined the presidential race earlier this year. He initially rebuffed calls by his former party to withdraw amid concerns that he would take votes away from Erdogan's rival.
The decision by Ince is likely to be welcomed by the CHP and the wider opposition bloc, according to Mehmet Karli, a CHP member and long-time adviser to Kilicdaroglu. While Ince may stop short of endorsing Kilicdaroglu, the general expectation is that his supporters wanted to see an end to Erdogan, so they will likely vote for the CHP leader.
Turkey holds elections every five years, and the candidate who receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round is elected president. If no candidate gets a majority, the election goes to a second round between the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round. "As the election day became closer, all votes were converging on Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, and Ince's votes were falling," said Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul. Ince's candidacy would have likely led to a second round of elections, and "he and his party did not want to take this responsibility," Somer added.
It remains unclear how Ince's supporters will vote, but Turkish polls have shown that a significant proportion of them would choose Kilicdaroglu if the Homeland Party leader withdrew. The election is expected to be a close race between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, with record voter turnouts predicted. "Even though formally an election, this is actually a referendum, and you have only two choices," said Somer.