UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing mounting pressure to overhaul his strategy and make significant changes to his ministerial team following recent electoral defeats. Despite losing two seats and narrowly retaining a third, Sunak remains committed to his current plan. However, party officials and advisers believe that a radical shift in tactics is needed to avoid a potential wipeout in the next general election.
The defeats suffered by the Tories in opposite ends of England indicate that voters have little patience for Sunak's current approach. To regain their support, officials argue that Sunak must unveil new policies and create clear dividing lines with the Labour opposition at the upcoming Tory conference in October.
Failure to heed these warnings could result in a significant loss in the next general election, officials warn. Currently trailing Labour by approximately 20 points in recent polls, Sunak is considering holding the national vote in November 2024, allowing the economy more time to recover while avoiding a winter ballot.
Although Sunak found solace in narrowly holding Boris Johnson's former constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the overall results reflect public dissatisfaction with the Conservative party's record since 2010. Analysts suggest that the loss of a seat to Labour on a near-record swing is more relevant to the party's prospects in a general election, as it was fought on national issues.
One major challenge is that Sunak's promises appear increasingly difficult to achieve given the current economic climate. Inflation remains high, and economists predict a recession. The national debt has exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time in decades, NHS waiting lists are at a record high, and small boat crossings remain a pressing concern.
Some members within Sunak's own party, including close allies, believe that his approach is flawed. Even with a recent decline in the rate of inflation, supporters argue that the cost of living will remain high, economic growth will be meager, and progress on immigration and healthcare will be hard to measure. Simply meeting economic targets while falling short on other key issues will not earn Sunak any credit, they assert.
If Sunak continues to emphasize his pledges but fails to deliver on them, Labour's arguments may gain traction, and calls for his resignation may emerge, according to some Tory MPs. They believe that the current strategy essentially concedes defeat and aims to avoid a landslide defeat in the next election.
To counter this, officials and MPs are urging for more extensive cabinet changes than initially planned. They suggest that at least eight members of Sunak's top team, including Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, are likely to retire at the next election and should be replaced with new faces to present the Tories as a party of the future.
In addition, the Treasury should consider an offer of tax cuts, meaning a Sunak ally, such as Claire Coutinho, could be given a prominent role. Officials argue that Downing Street must demonstrate how the Tories will deliver on key issues, contrasting themselves with Labour. They criticize Sunak for getting sidetracked by long-term projects and policies that may not resonate with voters.
To regain support from traditional Tory voters, officials suggest implementing five new pledges that focus on protecting property, pensions, borders, women and children, and safeguarding boilers and cars from perceived threats by Labour. The Tories can argue that a Labour government would raise taxes and spending, eliminate generous pension guarantees, restrict the passing of homes to children, and criticize Starmer's record on crime and immigration policies.
Meanwhile, opposition leader Keir Starmer has pledged fiscal prudence, aiming to counter the Tory attack that accuses Labour of recklessness with public finances. Surveys indicate that Labour is now more trusted than the Tories on the economy.
Following the successful Uxbridge campaign against vehicle emission restrictions, there is speculation that Sunak may use green issues and the Net Zero agenda to differentiate the Tories from Labour. Officials suggest running campaigns with messages like "hands off our boilers" and "hands off our cars," implying that Starmer would impose costly restrictions and reduce freedoms in pursuit of a rapid green transition.
The outcome of the Uxbridge election highlights the importance of effectively delivering and implementing green policies that resonate with the public. Failing to do so could have electoral consequences for the Tories, experts warn.