Critics within the Conservative Party are ramping up their efforts to replace Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister, with two upcoming parliamentary by-elections seen as a crucial moment in their campaign. Former cabinet minister Simon Clarke's recent call for Sunak to resign was met with widespread criticism from Conservative lawmakers, suggesting that the immediate threat to Sunak's position has been quelled. However, those plotting against him are preparing for a sustained campaign leading up to the summer, with local elections in May serving as a major test.
The by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood on February 15th are seen as particularly important in determining the strength of support for the Tories and the anti-immigration Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage. Opinion polls indicate that the Tories are losing support to Reform UK, and if this trend continues, it could split the right-wing vote and give the leading Labour Party an advantage. Reform UK is taking the by-elections seriously and has nominated experienced candidates to stand for the seats.
While Sunak's critics on the right-wing of the Conservative Party align themselves with Reform UK's stance on immigration, there is less consensus on who should replace him as leader. Names like Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch are often mentioned, but there is no clear consensus. Meetings among the group have taken place at the upscale J. Sheekey seafood restaurant in London. The question now is whether the plotters are simply making noise or if they are preparing for a dramatic moment that could potentially remove Sunak from power.
Simon Clarke's recent column calling for Sunak's resignation was published in the Daily Telegraph, which commissioned a YouGov poll funded by a group of anonymous right-wing donors known as the Conservative Britain Alliance. This raises concerns in Downing Street, as the group has ties to both the Tory right and Reform UK. While it's unclear which camp the donors favor, it is evident that discussions are taking place among like-minded individuals on how to install a new leader before the election.
The number of Tory MPs willing to go against Sunak and potentially end his premiership is currently limited. However, recent public polling has shown a decline in Sunak's popularity among Conservative voters and Brexit supporters, with Reform UK gaining support at the Tories' expense. The fear among plotters is that if Farage returns as leader of Reform UK, the polls could shift even further, putting the seats of prominent Tory figures like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Michael Gove at risk.
Pressure on Sunak will continue to mount with each election result that confirms the Tories' worst fears. His first major test will come in the upcoming by-elections, where the performance of the Conservative Party will be closely scrutinized. The outcome of these elections will provide crucial insights into the feasibility of Sunak maintaining his position as Prime Minister until the nationwide vote later this year.