Rishi Sunak is facing a crucial three-week political challenge that could have a lasting impact on his premiership and the Conservative Party's chances in the next UK general election. As Parliament goes on summer recess on July 20, the same day as the by-elections in three parliamentary seats, Sunak is hoping for positive results to give a much-needed boost to his party's morale.
However, recent trends have shown a decline in Conservative performance, and there are additional challenges awaiting Sunak in the coming weeks. These include a state visit by US President Joe Biden, strikes by doctors that could disrupt Sunak's plans to reduce hospital waiting times, an expected increase in asylum seekers arriving from France, and potential fallout from the financial concerns surrounding Britain's largest water supplier.
Trailing behind the opposition Labour Party by 22 points, which has increased from 16 points in just three weeks according to YouGov, Sunak is under pressure to regain ground. His long-awaited plan to bolster the National Health Service (NHS) workforce, which he labeled as one of his most significant initiatives as prime minister, was overshadowed by a public resignation and criticism of the prime minister’s performance from a minister. This is just one example of the public conflicts within the Conservative Party that have weakened Sunak's attempts to present a united front to the voters.
Amidst this challenging environment, President Biden's visit to the UK during his trip to Europe to reinforce NATO alliances could provide some respite for Sunak. Relations with the US have improved under Sunak's leadership, and emphasizing the UK's support for Ukraine against Russian aggression could resonate with restless Tory members.
However, there are potential risks for Sunak during Biden's visit. In a previous trip to Belfast and Dublin, Biden expressed concern about the peace process in Northern Ireland and ensuring that Brexit does not undermine it. With the Democratic Unionist Party still refusing to rejoin the region's government, resolving this issue remains a significant challenge for Sunak's administration.
Later in the same week, there could be further challenges for the prime minister as junior doctors in England begin a five-day strike, which will be the longest in NHS history. Despite months of strikes across the public sector, public support for healthcare staff remains strong, posing a potential headache for Sunak. He has made tackling inflation his top economic priority and regards negotiations over public pay in that context. However, the disruption caused by strikes could exacerbate existing issues within the NHS.
In addition to these challenges, Sunak is scheduled to appear before Parliament's powerful liaison committee where he is likely to face questions on various issues, including the potential nationalization of Thames Water and the implications of the recent court ruling deeming the deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda unlawful. Furthermore, a group of backbench Conservative MPs plans to release their own proposal for reducing net migration, adding more pressure on Sunak.
The most significant political showdown is expected to occur during the by-elections on July 20. The results of these three votes will be closely monitored for evidence of improvement in the Conservative Party's chances, particularly after their disappointing performance in the local elections in May. Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is considered a prime target for Labour, but it is now a more uncertain contest following his resignation. Another seat in Somerton and Frome is expected to be won by the Liberal Democrats, and the third seat in Selby and Ainsty, near Sunak's own constituency, became vacant after a loyalist to Boris Johnson quit in support of the former Tory leader.
However, the most worrying prospect for the Tories is a survey conducted in Mid Bedfordshire, where Nadine Dorries, another loyalist to Johnson, has announced her resignation. The poll commissioned by Labour, according to The Telegraph, suggests that the opposition party is on track to win, which would be a major upset in by-election history. Despite the tensions within the party, it is unlikely that the Conservatives can afford to change leaders once again, which means Sunak will likely lead the party into the next general election. Nevertheless, the outcome of the next three weeks will greatly influence the party's mood and the campaign he will have to conduct.