China's decision to abandon its strict Covid Zero policy in December 2022 led to a staggering number of excess deaths in just two months, according to a recent independent study. The study, published in the journal JAMA Network Open, estimated that nearly 1.9 million adults over the age of 30 died between December 2022 and January 2023 as a result of the sudden introduction of widespread Covid-19 infection.
This figure is particularly shocking considering that fewer than 7 million deaths worldwide have been officially attributed to Covid. The Chinese government had previously disclosed around 60,000 Covid-related deaths in health facilities during the same time period. The researchers' estimate aligns with forecasts from other health groups, highlighting the devastating impact of ending the Covid Zero policy.
China was the first country to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it was able to quickly suppress the virus through stringent measures over an extended period. However, because the Chinese population had limited natural immunity and was not fully vaccinated, the sudden introduction of widespread infection had a devastating impact. Older individuals were particularly vulnerable, and every province in China, except Tibet, experienced a higher-than-expected mortality rate.
To come up with these figures, the researchers utilized a unique approach. They analyzed published obituaries for employees at three prestigious universities in China and also collected data on searches related to funeral parlors, cremation, and burial using the Baidu search engine, which accounts for almost all internet queries in China. This allowed them to calculate the excess deaths among adults in China during the two months following the abandonment of the Covid Zero policy.
The researchers expressed confidence in their estimates, considering the absence of timely and comprehensive official mortality data from China. Estimating the number of deaths from Covid has been challenging worldwide due to various factors, including difficulties in diagnosing infections early on and tracking the impact of massive waves of the virus. Experts agree that the official figures are likely underestimates, and it may take years to determine the true toll.
In terms of cumulative deaths, the United States has reported the highest number throughout the pandemic, followed by Brazil and India. However, when considering excess deaths, a measure that takes into account the indirect effects of Covid, India tops the list with an estimated 6.2 million deaths, followed by China with 1.9 million, Russia with 1.5 million, and the US with 1.3 million.
The study highlights the importance of considering both direct and indirect effects of Covid when assessing the overall mortality burden. Covid may contribute to deaths in ways that are not officially recognized, such as triggering underlying health conditions like strokes. This further complicates the accurate counting of Covid-related deaths.
China's decision to narrow the definition of Covid deaths shortly after abandoning its Covid Zero policy also created challenges in obtaining accurate counts. Calls for data transparency from the World Health Organization and experts outside of China have emphasized the need for accountability and a comprehensive understanding of the true impact of the pandemic.
The researchers believe that their innovative estimation strategy using a combination of data sources provides valuable insights into public health research and sheds light on the consequences of abandoning strict containment measures.