Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured his rule for a third decade after winning the presidential election on Sunday. Though, his victory did not include Istanbul, a strategic and personal jewel which the leader is eager to take back in the upcoming municipal elections scheduled for March 2024.
In his victory speech, Erdogan claimed his next goal is to win both Uskudar, a large district in Istanbul, and the city itself in the 2024 local elections. To win the city back, Erdogan wants to install a mayor from his Justice and Development (AK) Party.
Istanbul once served as the capital of the Ottoman Empire and is now Turkey’s most populous city with almost 16 million people, a quarter of the country’s electorate. The city was run by an Islamist-party, first by the Welfare Party of which Erdogan was a member, and then by the AK Party until the Republican People’s Party (CHP) won its mayorship in 2019 under Ekrem Imamoglu. Before serving as prime minister in 2003, Erdogan himself also held a mayorship of Istanbul between 1994 and 1998.
The current mayor of Istanbul, 52-year-old businessman, Imamoglu, is the city’s 32nd mayor and also ran as a prospective vice-president to opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the 2021 presidential elections. Analysts suggest that Imamoglu is a strong opponent who remains a threat to Erdogan’s rule.
Erdogan sees taking back Istanbul from his opposition nemesis as a personal victory. During celebrations marking the 570th anniversary of the city’s Ottoman conquest, Imamoglu reminded Erdogan in a speech that while he had won the presidential election, he had still not managed to win back Istanbul.
Recent surveys indicate that if Imamoglu and Erdogan had run in the same presidential election, Imamoglu would win almost 50% of the votes, while Erdogan would win close to 39%. Thus, Erdogan has taken steps to sideline Imamoglu, although it remains unclear how he plans to do so.
Erdogan may seek to win over Istanbul voters in the upcoming municipal elections or may engage in an extra-legal operation to replace Imamoglu with a state appointee. It is uncertain how Erdogan will take back Turkey’s commercial and electoral center.
Despite Erdogan’s victory in the presidential election, the opposition is still in contention, with some predicting that cooperation among the opposition parties may result in their future success. The leader is still faced with significant challenges, from rebuilding Turkey’s earthquake-stricken south to revitalizing a declining economy.
Undoubtedly, Istanbul holds considerable personal importance for Erdogan, as it is the city where he was born and where he began his political career, and continues to maintain a residence. Esen stated that Erdogan’s tenure as Istanbul’s mayor “springboarded him into national prominence,” and he has remarked that whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey, which underlines its strategic importance.