Prime Minister Rishi Sunak managed to secure a victory in a crucial parliamentary vote, fending off a potential rebellion from members of his own Conservative Party. The vote, held in the House of Commons, determined the approval of the general principles of Sunak's proposed legislation to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. The results saw 313 votes in favor and 269 against, granting Sunak a much-needed win. However, he still faces significant challenges ahead, as MPs from the right-wing faction of his party have made it clear that they intend to propose amendments to the bill in future votes expected in January. Additionally, the House of Lords is also expected to express objections to the legislation.
Despite the potential hurdles, Sunak can find solace in having crossed the first obstacle in his path. In recent days, it seemed that his bill was under significant threat, with the possibility of becoming the first leader to lose at this stage of a bill in the Commons in almost four decades. Given his working majority of 56, the outcome remained uncertain due to deep divisions within the Conservative Party.
Sunak has placed great importance on his Rwanda deportation program, which was deemed unlawful by the UK's highest court last month. The government views this plan as a necessary deterrent while also creating a distinguishing line with the leading Labour Party in anticipation of the upcoming election. However, winning over doubters within his own party proved to be a significant challenge. Some right-wing factions demanded an even more hardline bill to prevent asylum-seekers from having any recourse to UK or international courts. Meanwhile, the government acknowledged that the proposed legislation was already pushing the boundaries of international law. Moderates within the party voted in favor of the bill with the assurance that it would not be amended to appease the more right-wing Tories.
While Sunak may have crossed this hurdle, he is likely to face further internal conflict when the bill returns to Parliament next year for amendments, which is typical in the legislative process. This resembles past Tory battles over Brexit and threatens to undermine Sunak's efforts to remain in power beyond the upcoming election.
The Rwanda deportation program was inherited by Sunak from his predecessor, Boris Johnson, who introduced it as a means to curb the influx of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. Over 29,000 individuals have made this treacherous journey in 2022, with more than 45,000 doing so in the previous year. At the time of the plan's introduction, Sunak, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, expressed concerns regarding its effectiveness, value for money, and ethical implications. However, upon assuming office, Sunak embraced the plan, as his advisors saw it as a way to rejuvenate the dwindling popularity of the Tories. Public opinion polls often rank immigration among the top concerns of voters, although there are nuances in how the issue is framed, as well as a general public misunderstanding of the Rwanda deportation plan.
Ignoring the Supreme Court's ruling against the program, Sunak and his government persist with their deportation policy. The court's decision was based on fears that asylum-seekers could be forcibly returned from Rwanda to their home countries. The proposed legislation aims to override these objections by declaring Rwanda a safe country, a move that raises constitutional controversies.
As the Conservatives struggle to improve their polling numbers, the Rwanda policy risks becoming a political burden. Notably, it has already led to the resignation of immigration minister Robert Jenrick. The internal party strife surrounding the plan has morphed into a broader leadership battle, with contenders eying the post-election period for a potential leadership contest.
Given the high stakes, Sunak was desperate to secure victory in Tuesday's vote. With a working majority of 56, it would have taken only 29 Tories opposing the bill, or 57 abstentions, to defeat him. The government anticipated a close vote, as Climate Change Minister Graham Stuart was called back from the COP28 summit in Dubai to attend the Commons.
The legislation will now undergo further scrutiny with votes scheduled in January when Parliament reconvenes after its winter recess. It is expected to face strong opposition in the House of Lords, potentially delaying any deportations to Rwanda until after the general election. However, Sunak's immediate challenge lies in keeping his own party's MPs onside.
Without necessary amendments, the bill remains "inoperable and ineffective," according to David Jones, deputy leader of one of the right-wing factions within the Conservative Party. The government has already paid Rwanda £240 million ($301 million), with no deportations taking place thus far. Critics argue that even if flights were to proceed, the deterrent effect on potential migrants is questionable considering the risks they are willing to take to cross the English Channel.