Upcoming by-elections in two parliamentary districts will present a major test for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party. The elections, scheduled for February 15th, will be held in Wellingborough in central England and Kingswood in the southwest. Sunak's party is seeking to hold onto both seats and gain momentum ahead of an anticipated UK-wide vote later this year. These by-elections come at a crucial time for Sunak as he aims to bridge the polling gap between the Tories and the opposition Labour Party, which has remained around 20 points for over a year.
The Conservatives enjoyed a comfortable margin of victory in both seats during the last general election in 2019, with over 11,000 votes in Kingswood and more than 18,000 in Wellingborough. However, recent historic wins by Labour in by-elections have put Sunak's majority in the House of Commons at risk. As a result, Labour is expected to deploy significant resources in an attempt to further diminish the Tories' electoral strength.
In Wellingborough, the challenge is intensified by the scandal surrounding Conservative Member of Parliament Peter Bone. Bone was suspended from the House of Commons for six weeks after a parliamentary panel found him guilty of multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member around a decade ago. A petition, signed by over 10% of his constituents, was triggered, paving the way to remove him from office. Notably, Bone's own partner, Helen Harrison, has been selected as the Conservative Party candidate for the by-election. Labour's candidate is Gen Kitchen, who previously stood against Tory veteran Andrea Leadsom in the neighboring South Northamptonshire seat during the 2019 general election.
In Kingswood, the seat was left vacant when former minister Chris Skidmore resigned from the parliamentary Conservative party in protest against Sunak's dilution of UK climate policy. As a former science minister, Skidmore stated that he could no longer support a government that pursued actions he believed were detrimental and would cause further harm. Although the Kingswood seat will be abolished in the next general election due to constituency boundary changes, Labour sees an opportunity to gain an advantage, especially since the district borders prominent Tory figure Jacob Rees-Mogg's North East Somerset seat. A Labour victory in Kingswood would likely strengthen its position against Rees-Mogg in the upcoming general election.
Furthermore, Sunak faces the possibility of a third by-election in the near future. MP Scott Benton may face suspension from the House of Commons for 35 days after being caught on video allegedly offering to lobby on gambling issues for financial gain. If the suspension is approved, Benton's constituents would have the opportunity to petition for his removal, mirroring the circumstances that resulted in Bone's by-election. Benton won his Blackpool South seat for the Conservatives by a thin margin of 3,690 votes over Labour in 2019.
The outcome of these by-elections will be crucial for Sunak and the Conservative Party as they strive to reinvigorate their electoral fortunes. With Labour's recent string of victories in by-elections, the Conservative Party's hold on these seats is far from secure. These contests will test Sunak's ability to retain support and restore momentum ahead of a national election that is expected to take place later this year.