Boeing is optimistic when it comes to the future of the aviation industry, despite growing concerns over climate change and its impact on air travel. According to its latest projections, airlines will purchase around 42,595 jets worth nearly $8 trillion over the next 20 years. This news comes from Darren Hulst, Boeing's Vice President of Marketing, who said that the company's estimate had taken into account the heightened activism surrounding the environmental concerns associated with jet emissions.
However, with consumers becoming increasingly aware of their carbon footprint, governments are likely to encourage a shift towards greener modes of transport such as trains. In response, Hulst predicts that flights that are shorter than 500 miles could see a decline in demand.
Moreover, airlines will need to find ways to become more efficient in the use of their aircraft in order to continue to make profits. It is projected that carriers will find ways to get about 20% more productivity out of their fleets by utilizing large planes, adopting denser seating patterns, and keeping planes flying for more hours each day.
Despite the global concerns associated with the impact of climate change, Boeing predicts that the number of jets in service will double by 2042, growing at an estimated rate of 3.5% per year, faster than the projected 2.6% growth rate of the global economy. Meanwhile, Airbus SE anticipates that approximately 40,850 new aircraft will enter the commercial market in the next two decades. Both companies expect that single-aisle jets will continue to dominate the aviation market during this period.
Boeing and Airbus have similar forecasts regarding the popularity of workhorse jets like the 737 Max and A320neo. However, Boeing predicts that these single-aisle aircraft will account for 76% of projected sales, whereas its European competitor has forecast an 80% share of the market for these jets.
However, not all types of jets will experience robust growth, according to Boeing's projections. Its forecast for the number of air freighters and regional jets expected to enter the market has been scaled down by 1.6% and 14.6%, respectively, from last year's figures.
Finally, Hulst is skeptical about the potential of single-aisle jets like Airbus SE's A321XLR, which could fly between continents. Although he acknowledges that they could find a place in the global aviation market, Hulst does not believe they will play a significant role, as these planes lack the necessary capacity for bags and are unable to offer a premium product. Furthermore, the cargo element, which is crucial for medium- and long-haul flights, is not an option for this type of aircraft.